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June 1, 2020

Mocker Monday. June 1

V? Or U? (Or maybe W, L, or K!?) The theme of the week was definitely the post-Corona economic recovery. From the tone of the articles, most of the Mockers are quite bearish on the recovery, with recent market strength being chalked up to some wishful thinking. We’re not sure what the market is showing us marries with the underlying...

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May 27, 2020

Lesson Learned: Losing hurts

A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise. Daniel Kahneman Losing hurts. It really hurts. It hurts about twice as much as gaining the same thing. One of the ways this can manifest in investing is that we hold failures for far longer than we hold...

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May 26, 2020

The Amateur Investor Ep. 6: A look behind the curtain

In all honesty, with the ongoing pandemic, the draw-down had come faster than I’d expected. The difference was almost night and day as malls that were once filled with people turned instantly into ghost towns. On the investment front, my Portfolio was doing what Bill described as “half a W”. I wish I could give you a Ritholtz-style review of...

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May 25, 2020

Mocker Monday. 25 May.

Long term debt cycle Nucleus investments has posted a great summary of the Australian position within the long term debt cycle (described by Ray Dalio and shared by Mockingbird on May 12), and what to look for in terms of good and bad policy responses in this space. Well worth your time to watch the whole thing. Debt Deleveraging: is...

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May 21, 2020

Quiet Contrarian. Ep 2: How have I done? Part 1: The ASX.

One of the reasons I started this blog was to drive me to get better at tracking my stock picks. Over the years, I’d kind of tracked them with various software, or Commsec, or self made spreadsheets. They always seemed to have some sort of issue (e.g. only gave total return, not annualised, only tracked open positions, didn’t allow comparison...

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May 19, 2020

The Amateur Investor Ep. 5: Should I stay or should I go?

So it’s been a little while since I’ve had a look at my stocks, or at any news media in general. Here in Australia, much like elsewhere, the COVID 19 virus has seen a large shift across society. Sneezing or coughing in public brings the kind of looks and mild revulsion similar to when you let off a particularly noxious,...

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May 18, 2020

Mocker Monday. 18 May.

The ASX Big 4 Banks We’ve been discussing the banks this week, as they’ve all released their Q3 earnings. We found it quite a struggle to come up with a solid consensus, and the uncertainty around them was obvious in our discussions. In summary: things are very uncertain (and really not all that good), but because of that the banks...

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May 14, 2020

Lesson Learned: Cheap doesn’t always mean good.

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get Warren Buffett Value investing was made incredibly popular in the mid 20th Century by Warren Buffett and his teacher Benjamin Graham. Whilst valuation is still a significant part of every investors tool kit, the days of “cigarette butt investing” have largely passed. Nowadays, the stock market is so heavily analysed,...

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