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February 10, 2023

Quiet Contrarian. Ep39: Trades for January 2023

Continuing to sell as the market rallies. The narrative seems to have become one of bullishness, I am not sure I believe it… Sells Appen Ltd – APX.ASX – Got out on recent price strength, these guys have been bleeding out for a while now. Time to let them go. Nick Scali Ltd – NCK.ASX– Sold down to a 1.5% position,...

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January 2, 2023

Quiet Contrarian. Ep 38: Half Year Portfolio Update 2023

Portfolio Performance Portfolio has done well again, managing to outperform my benchmarks by ~5-20% depending on which one you want to look at. Here’s a bit of background on the Benchmarks I’ve been using: I do feel like a recession is likely in CY23, and have been slowly increasing my cash holdings as the market looked overpriced (timing hasn’t been...

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December 2, 2022

Quiet Contrarian. Ep37: Trades for November 2022

Lots of selling into the Santa rally. I still believe a recession is coming in CY23. Sells Computershare Ltd – CPU.ASX – I bought these guys as a high RoE quality tech stock. Lucked out as they turned into an interest rate beneficiary. Not really a growth company anymore, but trading at multiples >24x. Time to sell. Nick Scali Ltd –...

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November 8, 2022

Quiet Contrarian. Ep36: Trades for October 2022

Buys Bellevue Gold Ltd – BGL.ASX – I do believe gold will come back (which speaks to how much the Mockingbirds have influenced me, because 2 years ago I wouldn’t have touched gold with a ten ft pole), though I haven’t done well with it for a while. Missed the last cycle for poor reasons, and have been stuck with NST...

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October 4, 2022

Quiet Contrarian. Ep35: Trades for September 2022

Busy this month. Buys Genusplus Group Ltd – GNP.ASX – Doubled down on these guys. Service Stream – SSM.ASX – Their EOFY result got hurt by weak profit due to a number of big one offs for the year. They have historically managed their finances well, and have the chance to grow if they can increase the margins in the Lendlease services...

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September 1, 2022

Quiet Contrarian. Ep34: Trades for August 2022

Buys Genusplus Group Ltd – GNP.ASX – Build high power transmission lines. I feel like their services will be needed for a few years as we upgrade infrastructure for the great decarbonisation transition. Growing their contracts by pretty significant (though slowing) amounts every year. Still trading at 10x PE. They are almost certainly cyclical. DDH Drill – DDH.ASX – Doubled down on...

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August 4, 2022

Quiet Contrarian. Ep33: Trades for July 2022

Sell Magellan Financial – MFG.ASX – These guys have been one of my all time worst picks. Their biggest position was their global fund, which has been copping the Fund Managers double whammy: Falling investments and withdrawl of funds. Good lesson, in that I hadn’t realised just how much of their assets were tied up in effectively one big basket. Selling...

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July 15, 2022

Quiet Contrarian. Ep 32: FY22 Reflection

Overall update – Story of the year FY22 was definitely a tale of two halves, after having another bumper first half, I ended the year roughly where I started. I noted a number of times through the year that the market was at all time highs, and as it turns out, those were the times I should have taken profit....

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